The following talk discusses both the slide 2019 Clatsop County Housing Strategies Report and the slide 2021 Implementing a Regional Housing Needs Analysis Methodology in Oregon. Both slides are shown below the talk.

3-Minute Speech

The 2019 Clatsop County Housing Strategies Report slide in front of you has a chart in the upper left showing the years 2017 to 2040 with population information provided by Portland State University’s Population Research Center (PSU/PRC). This chart contains the population forecast the Clatsop County housing study consultants relied upon. I, Rick Bowers, want to point out two items from the chart. First, towards the right of the chart, towards the center of the page, there is a circled item saying the “2019 Housing Study projected a population of 41,806 by 2038.” Second, to the left there is another circled item saying “The 2022 actual population was 41,971.”

What this is saying is the population increase that was forecasted for 2038 was reached last year. To say it differently, three years after the 2019 study was published, we had exceeded the 20-year population forecast.

Based on this population forecast the consultants predicted 1,500 new housing units would be needed by 2038. I suppose that means we need this housing today.

On to the next slide.

With ongoing unreliable housing forecasts across Oregon, the consulting firm ECONorthwest was hired to coordinate developing a new forecasting methodology for Oregon.

In March of 2021 they produced an almost 600-page report outlining their new proposed methodology. The tables you see document additional housing that is needed by varying income levels throughout the county. The tables are pulled from the 2021 report. The total is 4,295 additional housing units will be needed by 2040. That’s almost 3 times the number of units the 2019 Clatsop County housing study predicted would be needed by 2038.

That would mean building the equivalent of about 4.3 of the new proposed Owen’s Adair 50-unit apartment buildings every year over the next 20 years throughout the county.  Approximately 49% of the units are targeted to require government subsidies. That means finding roughly $1Billion in government funds over that timeframe.

In December of this past year Oregon’s Department of Land Conservation and Development along with Oregon Housing and Community Solutions produced a Legislative Report recommending Oregon adopt this new methodology. As I understand it, this is part of HB2001 & HB2889 that is winding its way through the current legislative session.

The 2019 Clatsop County Housing Strategies Report: Drastically Underestimates Growth!

A pdf of the above image is available at https://friendsoftheunsheltered.org/wp-content/uploads/Housing-Demand.pdf.

Notes

• It’s my understanding consultants are required to use Portland State University’s Population Research Center (PSU/PRC) forecasts for studies related to Comprehensive Plans and land use regulations. [See Oregon Law under Data Sources below.]
• The 2019 Clatsop County Housing Strategies Report drastically underestimates population growth (using PSU/PRC forecasts).
• Certified population estimates (PSU/PRC) indicate in 2022 the county has reached the population that was predicted for 2038!
• The 20-year growth prediction happened in three years.
• The housing study predicted 1,500 new housing units would be needed by 2038.
• That’s the equivalent of building, countywide, 30 new Owens-Adairs expansion apartment complexes by 2038… which turned out to be needed in three years. I don’t mean to imply with this example that the housing units need to target low-income households. An alternate example is building 1,500 new single family homes across the county.
• The Portland-Beaverton-Vancouver Primary Metropolitan Statistical area (PMSA) forecasts have included confidence intervals (see below). Confidence Intervals emphasize that forecasts are not exact. PSU/PRC does NOT include Confidence Intervals. Note… It’s my understanding “Metro” is excluded from ORS 195.033 Area population forecasts (meaning PSU/PRC does not forecast for Metro).
• So what? The leading indicator is the county is growing faster than anticipated. Therefore, we should examine the housing study’s recommended strategies to increase the housing stock and implement changes to the Comprehensive Plans and Development Codes aggressively.

Data Sources

Portland State University – Population Research Center: https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-estimate-reports.

The certified 2020 population estimate for Clatsop County was originally set at 39,455 in December of 2020. See https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=1SaBFYWirIkJaIgRQRDVsvWVDwq925o7j. However, the estimate was updated (probably due to information from the U.S. Census) to 41,137. See https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=1yYQZE_p1-Lsdc-rhtNYviR1ns2bmh1pT.

Clatsop County Housing Strategies Report: https://www.clatsopcounty.gov/county/page/clatsop-county-housing-study See Appendix A, p. 32 for the table showing the the need for 1,500 housing units by 2038. See Appendix A, p. 29 for the 2038 forecasted population of 41,806.

Oregon Law (related to population forecasts): https://oregon.public.law/statutes/ors_195.033.

Portland-Beaverton-Vancouver Primary Metropolitan Statistical area (PMSA) forecasts

The following graph shows the use of confidence intervals to emphasize the single line forecasts are not necessarily precise. Note… It’s my understanding “Metro” is excluded from ORS 195.033 Area population forecasts (meaning PSU/PRC does not forecast for Metro).

A pdf of the above image is available at https://friendsoftheunsheltered.org/wp-content/uploads/OregonMetro-Population-Forecast.pdf.

Clatsop County Population Growth Forecasts & Actuals

The following is the insert used within the slide at the top of the page.

2021 Implementing a Regional Housing Needs Analysis Methodology in Oregon

A pdf of the above image is available at https://friendsoftheunsheltered.org/wp-content/uploads/Housing-Demand-OHCS.pdf.

Notes

• In March of 2021 ECONorthwest released a technical report prepared for and with Oregon Housing and Community Services (and many others).
• During the 2019 legislative session Tina Kotek said “The state’s housing crisis has continued for far too long and demands a bold set of solutions from the Legislature… We must publicly finance more affordable housing across Oregon. We must create more housing choice in exclusively single-family neighborhoods. And we must smooth the way for more construction at the local level. This is the goal of House Bill 2003.”
• The purpose of the study was to develop a methodology for a Regional Housing Needs Analysis for Oregon (RHNA) as required by HB 2003.
• Using the proposed methodology, the report provided tables showing forecasted housing needed by the year 2040.
• In December of 2022 (this past December) the Department of Land Conservation & Development in conjunction with Oregon Housing and Community Solutions released their legislative report that “describe the comprehensive, system-wide reforms needed to reverse decades of underinvestment in housing production and development readiness, organize our land use planning systems toward the common goal of building housing, and begin to redress disparities in housing outcomes.”

Data Sources

ECONorthwest. (2021). Implementing a regional housing needs analysis methodology in Oregon: Approach, results, and initial recommendations, from https://www.oregon.gov/ohcs/about-us/Documents/RHNA/RHNA-Technical-Report.pdf.

Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development & Oregon Housing and Community Services. (2022). Oregon housing needs analysis legislative recommendations report: Leading with production, from https://www.oregon.gov/lcd/UP/Pages/OHNA.aspx.

Total Clatsop County

The following table shows the sum of the data within Clatsop County cities (shown above).