The 2019 Clatsop County Housing Strategies Report: Drastically Underestimates Growth!

A pdf of the above image is available at https://friendsoftheunsheltered.org/wp-content/uploads/Housing-Demand.pdf.

Notes

It’s my understanding consultants are required to use Portland State University’s Population Research Center (PSU/PRC) forecasts for studies related to Comprehensive Plans and land use regulations. [See Oregon Law under Data Sources below.]
The 2019 Clatsop County Housing Strategies Report drastically underestimates population growth (using PSU/PRC forecasts).
Certified population estimates (PSU/PRC) indicate in 2022 the county has reached the population that was predicted for 2038!
The 20-year growth prediction happened in three years.
The housing study predicted 1,500 new housing units would be needed by 2038.
That’s the equivalent of building, countywide, 30 new Owens-Adairs expansion apartment complexes by 2038… which turned out to be needed in three years. I don’t mean to imply with this example that the housing units need to target low-income households. An alternate example is building 1,500 new single family homes across the county.
The Portland-Beaverton-Vancouver Primary Metropolitan Statistical area (PMSA) forecasts have included confidence intervals (see below). Confidence Intervals emphasize that forecasts are not exact. PSU/PRC does NOT include Confidence Intervals. Note… It’s my understanding “Metro” is excluded from ORS 195.033 Area population forecasts (meaning PSU/PRC does not forecast for Metro).
So what? The leading indicator is the county is growing faster than anticipated. Therefore, we should examine the housing study’s recommended strategies to increase the housing stock and implement changes to the Comprehensive Plans and Development Codes aggressively.

Data Sources

Portland State University – Population Research Center: https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-estimate-reports.

The certified 2020 population estimate for Clatsop County was originally set at 39,455 in December of 2020. See https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=1SaBFYWirIkJaIgRQRDVsvWVDwq925o7j. However, the estimate was updated (probably due to information from the U.S. Census) to 41,137. See https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=1yYQZE_p1-Lsdc-rhtNYviR1ns2bmh1pT.

Clatsop County Housing Strategies Report: https://www.clatsopcounty.gov/county/page/clatsop-county-housing-study See Appendix A, p. 32 for the table showing the the need for 1,500 housing units by 2038. See Appendix A, p. 29 for the 2038 forecasted population of 41,806.

Oregon Law (related to population forecasts): https://oregon.public.law/statutes/ors_195.033.

Portland-Beaverton-Vancouver Primary Metropolitan Statistical area (PMSA) forecasts

The following graph shows the use of confidence intervals to emphasize the single line forecasts are not necessarily precise. Note… It’s my understanding “Metro” is excluded from ORS 195.033 Area population forecasts (meaning PSU/PRC does not forecast for Metro).